Mike Ramsay says he’s shocked to hear Innisfil is leaning towards a community of communities growth plan.

If so the Ward 1 councillor is probably not alone. Innisfil’s approach may also have sideswiped his fellows at city council.

But that’s about it. Anyone who has been following growth-related developments, including warnings that Barrie is missing the boat, wouldn’t have batted an eye when a Simcoe County growth consultant told council the city could be left high and dry when the growth ship really catches wind and sets sail.

Consultant Ray Simpson told council on Monday that Barrie’s unwillingness to be a full partner in county growth talks is leaving room for alternative visions of growth to develop. Those visions are at odds with the city’s growth goals.

Following the bouncing growth ball is becoming increasingly difficult. At least three separate directions are taking shape.

The first two are the county’s growth talks and the Barrie-Innisfil boundary negotiations. They at least share the same central premise, taking their direction from the province’s Places to Grow policy and the county’s Intergovernmental Action Plan (IGAP) that places much of the anticipated growth in the Barrie/north Innisfil area.

The third, gaining ground in Innisfil and other county municipalities, appears to be at odds with Places to Grow and IGAP, as it lays out a scenario in which growth would occur in pockets of urban nodes across the county – Innisfil’s community of communities vision that, says Mayor Brian Jackson, is a key principle of the town’s Official Plan.

The city’s on-again, off-again talks with Innisfil are off again, pending information on phosphorous loading in Lake Simcoe and municipal ability to treat wastewater. At present, no new talks are scheduled.

But the process is rolling along, with or without Barrie’s participation. The community of communities’ model received a very public airing recently when development plans were pitched at a Simcoe County growth forum. (See Developers have big plans for county on this site).

Nearly 20 developers and consultants unveiled plans that would see development throughout south Simcoe and north to Oro-Medonte. Of key interest to Barrie were the proposals of three large developers, Metrus, the Cortel Group, and Pratt Homes, which, they say, would make Innisfil the residential and industrial capital of the county.

One developer, Mario Cortellucci of the Cortel Group, has a plan to develop the Highway 400 lands from the Barrie border, south through Innisfil and into the Bradford West Gwillimbury area. The area would be serviced by extending water pipes up Line 6 and expanding the Alcona sewage treatment plant.

This by itself should make Barrie sit up and take notice, as servicing the town’s Innisfil Heights industrial area, basically centred around Highway 400 and Innisfil Beach Road, has been a key component of the Barrie/Innisfil talks.

Basically, Barrie has been pitching boundary realignment in exchange for servicing of Innisfil Heights. The city could easily extend services south. However, if Innisfil has another option, another arrow in its quiver, then it seems Barrie’s bargaining strength is weakened.

None of this should come as news to anyone on the Barrie negotiating committee, including Ramsay, who is chair of that team.

But it does put the county in a difficult place. One of its principal members seems to be pitching a direction at odds with the county’s approach.

There are all sorts of reasons why Barrie should be a fully participating partner in the county’s growth talks. Helping to influence the outcome of those talks is a big one. Preventing any more ‘shocks’ is another. The question is obvious: lead or be led.